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 Topic: ACTUAL Chakra Distribution Odds
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  Posted on September 2, 2007 04:17
cursedsasuke100
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#46
Quote by BLOODBROTHER
YOU'LL GET AROUND THREE CHAKRA IF ALL THREE OF YOURS ARE ALIVE WHEN ONE DIES YOU GET TWO AND IF YOU HAVE ONE LEFT YOU GET AROUND ONE CHAKRA PER TURN. THE YOU HAVE ALIVE THE MORE CHAKRA YOU GET AND THE FIRST TURN YOU ALWAYS GET ONE CHAKRA, THATS MY THEORY


yea i think thats how it go

Quote by Cursedsasuke100
Aww what’s the matter? You’re the one who started this game. Now you’re losing and you don’t want to play any more.

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css team is is is..............there no stopping it i was way out of my league challenging him like that
  Posted on September 7, 2007 01:59
kupo_1000
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#47
Eh I got 8 bloodline in a row 1 vs 1 battle for a mission complete for me, 3% chance of that happening
  Posted on September 10, 2007 04:58
The_White_Fang
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#48
So in the end this game is based on luck. Therefor proving the fact that Gai's counterpunch doesn't change the game to be strictly on luck itself.


"A single arrow, right between the eyes? Who else could make a shot like that?"

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  Posted on September 12, 2007 10:51
Ninetailsboy
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#49
i think i'm doomed cuz i get 5gen or 5 blood
sometimes 3 nin
but tai its loss
What is your :::||Desire||::: Gift from Deea <3 The Random

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  Posted on September 17, 2007 04:38
ajburges
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#50
I got bored and also like working with numbers/probabilities. So I did a table of possible specific chackra amounts after 'x' (1 to 4) turns with 'y' (1 to 3) team members and compiled a table of chackra amounts of at least 'z'. All the math is correct but not shown (I did it in excel and have most of the original uncommented sheets still). This table works only if the function for chackra allotment is random (which if you've noticed isn't).

Without more delay here it is (sorry about the formating. creating tables is difficult without tabs, fixed width font, or even multiple spaces).

Probability of getting at least 'z' chackra based on team size and turns passed. Note: zero is in raw prob form (it's at least prob=100%)

Chackra | 3 Character | 2 Character | 1 Character

After 1 Turns
00 | 42.2% | 56.3% | 75.0%
01 | 57.8% | 43.8% | 25.0%
02 | 15.6% | 06.3% | --------
03 | 01.6% | -------- | --------

After 2 Turns
00 | 17.8% | 31.6% | 56.3%
01 | 82.2% | 68.4% | 43.8%
02 | 46.6% | 26.2% | 06.3%
03 | 16.9% | 05.1% | --------
04 | 03.8% | 00.4% | --------
05 | 00.5% | -------- | --------
06 | 00.0% | -------- | --------

After 3 Turns
00 | 07.5% | 17.8% | 42.2%
01 | 92.5% | 82.2% | 57.8%
02 | 70.0% | 46.6% | 15.6%
03 | 39.9% | 16.9% | 01.6%
04 | 16.6% | 03.8% | --------
05 | 04.9% | 00.5% | --------
06 | 01.0% | 00.0% | --------
07 | 00.1% | -------- | --------
08 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
09 | 00.0% | -------- | --------

After 4 Turns
00 | 03.2% | 10.0% | 31.6%
01 | 96.8% | 90.0% | 68.4%
02 | 84.1% | 63.3% | 26.2%
03 | 60.9% | 32.1% | 05.1%
04 | 35.1% | 11.4% | 00.4%
05 | 15.7% | 02.7% | --------
06 | 05.4% | 00.4% | --------
07 | 01.4% | 00.0% | --------
08 | 00.3% | 00.0% | --------
09 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
10 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
11 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
12 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
  Posted on September 23, 2007 03:38
Level1
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#51
now i understand
  Posted on September 23, 2007 09:30
ChaosXX
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#52
Quote by ajburges
I got bored and also like working with numbers/probabilities. So I did a table of possible specific chackra amounts after 'x' (1 to 4) turns with 'y' (1 to 3) team members and compiled a table of chackra amounts of at least 'z'. All the math is correct but not shown (I did it in excel and have most of the original uncommented sheets still). This table works only if the function for chackra allotment is random (which if you've noticed isn't).

Without more delay here it is (sorry about the formating. creating tables is difficult without tabs, fixed width font, or even multiple spaces).

Probability of getting at least 'z' chackra based on team size and turns passed. Note: zero is in raw prob form (it's at least prob=100%)

Chackra | 3 Character | 2 Character | 1 Character

After 1 Turns
00 | 42.2% | 56.3% | 75.0%
01 | 57.8% | 43.8% | 25.0%
02 | 15.6% | 06.3% | --------
03 | 01.6% | -------- | --------

After 2 Turns
00 | 17.8% | 31.6% | 56.3%
01 | 82.2% | 68.4% | 43.8%
02 | 46.6% | 26.2% | 06.3%
03 | 16.9% | 05.1% | --------
04 | 03.8% | 00.4% | --------
05 | 00.5% | -------- | --------
06 | 00.0% | -------- | --------

After 3 Turns
00 | 07.5% | 17.8% | 42.2%
01 | 92.5% | 82.2% | 57.8%
02 | 70.0% | 46.6% | 15.6%
03 | 39.9% | 16.9% | 01.6%
04 | 16.6% | 03.8% | --------
05 | 04.9% | 00.5% | --------
06 | 01.0% | 00.0% | --------
07 | 00.1% | -------- | --------
08 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
09 | 00.0% | -------- | --------

After 4 Turns
00 | 03.2% | 10.0% | 31.6%
01 | 96.8% | 90.0% | 68.4%
02 | 84.1% | 63.3% | 26.2%
03 | 60.9% | 32.1% | 05.1%
04 | 35.1% | 11.4% | 00.4%
05 | 15.7% | 02.7% | --------
06 | 05.4% | 00.4% | --------
07 | 01.4% | 00.0% | --------
08 | 00.3% | 00.0% | --------
09 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
10 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
11 | 00.0% | -------- | --------
12 | 00.0% | -------- | --------


lolz what do you mean by "after 2 turns", "after 3 turns", and "after 4 turns"? it's just the same probability each round, and no you can't say that 2 turns with three characters means 6 chakras in terms of probability. It's the same for multiple round chakras.. look at my thread to see the formula and then you'll see because i use formulas from real stat books. lolz it's on my siggy.
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  Posted on October 24, 2007 03:59
hokageshaq
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#53
no wonder its hard for me to get 3 ninjutsu

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  Posted on November 1, 2007 18:41
Bonehead
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#54
I wonder why you put a higher percentage on 2 1 0 0 then on 1 1 10, true, the possible distributions are:

ttn, tnt, ntt

tbn, tnb, ntb, nbt, btn, bnt

but only if you don't differ between the two tai. True, for the player, it doesn't matter in which order the two chakra of the same type is put, but since you put an order for the computer, the tai need to be calculated even:

t1 t2 n ,t2 t1 n ,t1 n t2 ,t2 n t1 ,n t1 t2 ,n t2 t1
which would end in an equal percantage to 1110.

Why the computer has to look seperatly on the two tai chakra, well, i think the computer calculates every single chakra seperatly, too. This makes sense since everything in this game is calculated seperatly (best example Gai's counter punsh)
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  Posted on November 24, 2007 04:21
ChaosXX
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#55
Quote by cLePt0
nice but i think the chakra odds dont apply to me
that's ridiculous.. everyone is controlled by the same probability
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  Posted on November 28, 2007 03:06
dara
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#56
interesting how it works out


  Posted on November 28, 2007 10:05
1wozza33
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#57
tell me the odds of getting 3 nin each round for 7 turns (equals 21 nin) and ur team doesn't use any nin
  Posted on December 5, 2007 23:36
BamboS
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#58
hahah chakra % this is the biggest bullshit omg if u need good chakra U NEVER GET IT gen % is hmm 80 ? nin is maybee 20% i'm going to sleep becasue i;m angry
Signature removed due to flaming
  Posted on December 15, 2007 23:02
young-killah
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#59
i get it and i like it

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  Posted on December 20, 2007 10:36
ChaosXX
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#60
Quote by 1wozza33
tell me the odds of getting 3 nin each round for 7 turns (equals 21 nin) and ur team doesn't use any nin


You first get the chances of getting a nin in a single round. That's approximately 1%, or 0.01, then you use the Binomial Distribution to calculate for the seven rounds.

That's (7C7) [(0.01)^7] [[0.99)^0] = 0.000000000000001 = 0.0000000000001%

So it really IS small. It's nearly impossible!
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