ACTUAL Chakra Distribution Odds - Page 3


 Topic: ACTUAL Chakra Distribution Odds
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  Posted on July 26, 2007 03:59
Gackt
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#31
Luapman, please watch over my thread. I won't be around for a while.

http://www.naruto-boards.com/25145/chakra-probabilities/
  Posted on July 28, 2007 09:28
qpalzmmzlapq
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#32
Luapman, gackt:

It doesn't work like that at all.
It would if the actual random function was really random. Then your statistics would be correct.

This works in real life examples and math problems at scholl, but every decent programmer knows that there doesn't exist a real random function.

This is why so many people get the same type of chakra all the time.
There cannot be valid statistics for that.

Here is the data I collected over 100 fights (no surrender and team7)

First 50 fights:
*average number of turns / match: 10
*average number of chakra / turn: 2,5

tai: 71
nin: 84
blo: 41
gen: 32

Last 50 fights:
*average number of turns / match: 12
*average number of chakra / turn: 2,1

tai: 52
nin: 45
blo: 76
gen: 35

There is always 1 type of chakra that gets more points. The problem is we don't know which one in advance... ;)

Quote by dara

so if the odds are 1/4 then we sud have a team in which every person uses different combination, thus this way, every turn either one will be able to make a move


Exactly, you have more chance of using a skill each turn with a team like
hinata/neji/sasuke than a team like temari/tenten/shino

It doesn't mean you will win. It means you have less chance to lose because of bad chakra.
-----------

Courtesy of The Bonobo's
  Posted on July 29, 2007 03:14
GaaraDestroyer
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#33
Quote by qpalzmmzlapq
Luapman, gackt:

It doesn't work like that at all.
It would if the actual random function was really random. Then your statistics would be correct.

This works in real life examples and math problems at scholl, but every decent programmer knows that there doesn't exist a real random function.

This is why so many people get the same type of chakra all the time.
There cannot be valid statistics for that.

Here is the data I collected over 100 fights (no surrender and team7)

First 50 fights:
*average number of turns / match: 10
*average number of chakra / turn: 2,5

tai: 71
nin: 84
blo: 41
gen: 32

Last 50 fights:
*average number of turns / match: 12
*average number of chakra / turn: 2,1

tai: 52
nin: 45
blo: 76
gen: 35

There is always 1 type of chakra that gets more points. The problem is we don't know which one in advance... ;)

Quote by dara

so if the odds are 1/4 then we sud have a team in which every person uses different combination, thus this way, every turn either one will be able to make a move


Exactly, you have more chance of using a skill each turn with a team like
hinata/neji/sasuke than a team like temari/tenten/shino

It doesn't mean you will win. It means you have less chance to lose because of bad chakra.


you do realize those figures that Luap posted are the %s of "perfect world" statistics. its theoretical probability, and experimental probability. Luap posted the theoretical probability. in theory, those are the correct numbers.

why you brought yourself to track 100 battles...well you got alot of time on your hands.
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  Posted on July 29, 2007 12:08
litochinkboi916
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#34
the odds are really low for the 3 chakra distributions i guess iits fair like that

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  Posted on July 29, 2007 12:09
Dangerdoom
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#35
this is experimental probability -.- not theoretical
  Posted on July 29, 2007 12:46
Blackavar
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#36
Basically, if you're not getting the chakra you need, blame statistical probability
  Posted on July 30, 2007 04:14
Seraph114
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#37
lol, i just came back and apparently the issue that i started off actually ended up with a admin to conclude it (thank god =D). i was one of the first people that spotted this prob and commented about this on someone else's thread.

i'm glad i was right
  Posted on August 2, 2007 01:11
GaaraDestroyer
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#38
Quote by ebnullyboi
Quote by ChaosXX
sorry, i tried to interpret your post. lol, let's talk by pm. i'd like to know you're formulas for getting either one chakra or one genjutsu.

EDIT: OK, i just understood how you understood it.

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

nnn nng ngn gnn nnb nbn bnn ngg gng ggn bbn bnb nbb ngb nbg bng gnb ngb gnb

ggg ggb gbg bgg gbb bgb bbg

bbb

that's the list of all the possible chakra combinations (64 ways). The way you understood it is that you want to know the chances of getting at least one chakra, for example. then there are

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

ways in which you can receive chakra with one tai in them (37 ways). so that's 37/64 = 57% (decimals dropped).

That list consists of the chances of getting exactly one chakra (27 ways):

tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

exactly two chakra(9 ways):

ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

and exactly three chakra(1 chakra):

ttt

So The percentages add up to 57% (37/64)..

In this case, you get one tai or two tai or three tai but still get one tai. The total ways you receive at least one tai is:

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

Concerning getting at least two tai:

exactly two chakra(9 ways):

ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

and exactly three chakra(1 chakra):

ttt

So the percentages add up to 15% (10/64).. where you still get two tai. So the total ways would be

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

an finally, getting three tai. it's ttt, 1/64 = 1% (decimals dropped).



u hav no life type dat chaos no offense
btw thx laupman 4 da ez 2 understand math


or hes just smart.
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Guess it's my fault though, not changing the sig.


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  Posted on August 2, 2007 03:49
WarGod99
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#39
ok,probability,is probability,when it comes down to it u gonna need some luck,especially if ur using gaara or kakashi



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  Posted on August 2, 2007 14:01
ChaosXX
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#40
Quote by ebnullyboi
Quote by ChaosXX
sorry, i tried to interpret your post. lol, let's talk by pm. i'd like to know you're formulas for getting either one chakra or one genjutsu.

EDIT: OK, i just understood how you understood it.

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

nnn nng ngn gnn nnb nbn bnn ngg gng ggn bbn bnb nbb ngb nbg bng gnb ngb gnb

ggg ggb gbg bgg gbb bgb bbg

bbb

that's the list of all the possible chakra combinations (64 ways). The way you understood it is that you want to know the chances of getting at least one chakra, for example. then there are

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

ways in which you can receive chakra with one tai in them (37 ways). so that's 37/64 = 57% (decimals dropped).

That list consists of the chances of getting exactly one chakra (27 ways):

tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

exactly two chakra(9 ways):

ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

and exactly three chakra(1 chakra):

ttt

So The percentages add up to 57% (37/64)..

In this case, you get one tai or two tai or three tai but still get one tai. The total ways you receive at least one tai is:

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

Concerning getting at least two tai:

exactly two chakra(9 ways):

ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

and exactly three chakra(1 chakra):

ttt

So the percentages add up to 15% (10/64).. where you still get two tai. So the total ways would be

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

an finally, getting three tai. it's ttt, 1/64 = 1% (decimals dropped).



u hav no life type dat chaos no offense
btw thx laupman 4 da ez 2 understand math
wow, i never thought you would say that openly. it's you who doesn't have a life. lol. and what's wrong with posting that anyway?

EDIT: sorry if it annoys some people to hear this, but i'm working on a complement to this perfect probability thing.. i'm trying to develop a formula for multiple chakra probabilities. so, to those who're interested, i'd like for some help. The charts are easy enough to draw, but they're long and i've only made it to about 3/4 of the whole thing.. but if you've already got a formula, please pm me.. it'll save me all the work. lol. thanks.. oh, and welcome back Seraph114! I've been wondering when you'll come back.
  Posted on August 7, 2007 12:45
orboro
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#41
for 2 specific chakra and you getting 2 chakra it is wrong cuz if each char gets 1 chakra then
it is a 25% chance of getting a certain one so the chance of getting say two gen it would be 12.5% cuz 25 divided vy 2 is 12.5
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  Posted on August 8, 2007 08:00
Fortitude
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#42
this game is like playing black jack. even tho chances are you should get a hand there is always good chance you will get a foot.


  Posted on September 1, 2007 04:37
Mazakazu
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#43
i also think it's pretty easy to understand!
  Posted on September 1, 2007 14:58
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#44
YOU'LL GET AROUND THREE CHAKRA IF ALL THREE OF YOURS ARE ALIVE WHEN ONE DIES YOU GET TWO AND IF YOU HAVE ONE LEFT YOU GET AROUND ONE CHAKRA PER TURN. THE YOU HAVE ALIVE THE MORE CHAKRA YOU GET AND THE FIRST TURN YOU ALWAYS GET ONE CHAKRA, THATS MY THEORY


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  Posted on September 1, 2007 15:08
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#45
it's true there are percentages but it all comes down to luck whether you get what you want
My ratio is irrelevant cuz i try out teams in ladder if i want to i can res with AT LEAST 70 % wins