ACTUAL Chakra Distribution Odds


 Topic: ACTUAL Chakra Distribution Odds
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  Posted on July 7, 2007 06:00
Luapman
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#1
Format:

3 chakra per round:
#of chakra
tai,blo,nin,gen (combinations) odds (%rounded to nearest tenths)
1,1,1,0 (tbn, tnb, btn, bnt, ntb, nbt) 3/32 (9.4%)
1,0,1,1 (tng, tgn, ntg, ngt, gtn, gnt) 3/32 (9.4%)
1,1,0,1 (tbg, tgb, btg, bgt, gtb, gbt) 3/32 (9.4%)
0,1,1,1 (bng, bgn, nbg, ngb, gbn, gnb) 3/32 (9.4%)
2,1,0,0 (ttb, tbt, btt) 3/64 (4.5%)
2,0,1,0 (ttn, tnt, ntt) 3/64 (4.5%)
2,0,0,1 (ttg, tgt, gtt) 3/64 (4.5%)
1,2,0,0 (tbb, btb, bbt) 3/64 (4.5%)
0,2,1,0 (bbn, bnb, nbb) 3/64 (4.5%)
0,2,0,1 (bbg, bgb, gbb) 3/64 (4.5%)
1,0,2,0 (tnn, ntn, nnt) 3/64 (4.5%)
0,1,2,0 (bnn, nbn, nnb) 3/64 (4.5%)
0,0,2,1 (nng, ngn, gnn) 3/64 (4.5%)
1,0,0,2 (tgg, gtg, ggt) 3/64 (4.5%)
0,1,0,2 (bgg,gbg, ggb) 3/64 (4.5%)
0,0,1,2 (nbb, bnb, bbn) 3/64 (4.5%)
3,0,0,0 (ttt) 1/64 (1.6%)
0,3,0,0 (bbb) 1/64 (1.6%)
0,0,3,0 (nnn) 1/64 (1.6%)
0,0,0,3 (ggg) 1/64 (1.6%)

2 chakra per round:
1,1,0,0 (tb, bt) 1/8 (12.5%)
1,0,1,0 (tn, nt) 1/8 (12.5%)
1,0,0,1 (tg, gt) 1/8 (12.5%)
0,1,1,0 (bn, nb) 1/8 (12.5%)
0,1,0,1 (bg, gb) 1/8 (12.5%)
0,0,1,1 (ng, gn) 1/8 (12.5%)
2,0,0,0 (tt) 1/16 (6.3%)
0,2,0,0 (bb) 1/16 (6.3%)
0,0,2,0 (nn) 1/16 (6.3%)
0,0,0,2 (gg) 1/16 (6.3%)

1 Chakra per Round:
1,0,0,0 (t) 1/4 (25%)
0,1,0,0 (b) 1/4 (25%)
0,0,1,0 (n) 1/4 (25%)
0,0,0,1 (g) 1/4 (25%)

That which does not kill us makes us stronger. - Friedrich Nietzsche
~The Dragon has left us. James Rigney 1948-2007~
Rest in peace DM of DM's. Gary Gygax 1938-2008
  Posted on July 7, 2007 06:06
hawkroth
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#2
lol, now I know whether or not it's fair to scream at the computer for getting really bad chakra draws.
  Posted on July 7, 2007 06:07
CBB
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#3
i get it you posted the amount of chakra each turn depending on how many characters you have left on your team
  Posted on July 7, 2007 06:08
Death_atu
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#4
then why do i only get bloodline and genjutsu


  Posted on July 7, 2007 06:19
Naruto_Arena007
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#5
So basicaly theres a even chance of getting any chakara

Quote by A Wise Old Man Once Said
Bow down to Naruto_Arena007
  Posted on July 7, 2007 06:35
hawkroth
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#6
Quote by Naruto_Arena007
So basicaly theres a even chance of getting any chakara

yep, 1/4, these are just the odds that you get certain combination of chakra in a single draw
  Posted on July 7, 2007 07:35
ChaosXX
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#7
so that means order does matter. then we are correct in kalandra's post when we declared our calculations, right? i'm happy we're correct.
  Posted on July 7, 2007 07:49
DeadCell
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#8
Quote by Death_atu
then why do i only get bloodline and genjutsu

Because the gods have declared that curse upon you at birth. Now go young monk, and use that curse as a weapon to avenge the ones whom brought it upon you.
On a more serious note, you're probably just noticing it more because your characters don't need it; that, or you have terrible luck.

As for the first post can you add in that the odds of getting 1 or more of a specific chakra from 3 are 37/64 (57.8%), getting 2 or more of a specific chakra from 3 are 9/64 (15.6%), getting 1 or more of 2 specific chakra is 9/32(28.1%) and getting 1 or more of a specific chakra from 2 are 7/16 (43.8%). Of course don't do this if those aren't the correct odds, but I believe they are. I'm going to PM something along these lines to you in case you don't check back in here, hope you don't mind.
  Posted on July 7, 2007 08:20
ChaosXX
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#9
@deadcell actually, you said the probability for geting at least one chakra. the probability to get exactly one from three chakra is 27/64 = 42.% (rounded to the ones) and to get exactly two from three is 9/64 = 14%, but to get at least two is 56% (42+14) (still rounded). to get exactly three is 1%.

EDIT: it only makes sense because you get 27/64 +27/64 +9/64 + 1/64 = 64/64, which are the probabilities of getting exactly 0, 1, 2, and 3 chakra out of three espectively.
  Posted on July 7, 2007 08:38
DeadCell
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#10
Quote by ChaosXX
@deadcell actually, you said the probability for geting at least one chakra.

I don't see how you're correcting me, I said that those were the odds of getting 1 or more, I suppose it could be nice to know your chances of getting 1, and only 1of a specific chakra, but my post was about getting 1 or more, which I find to be more practical.
  Posted on July 7, 2007 09:00
ChaosXX
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#11
@deadcell: i understood your post as getting at least one chakra. for example, you want to know the probabilities on getting at least one gen, which is to get either one gen, two gen, or three gen. that would be 57% (the decimals were dropped).
  Posted on July 7, 2007 09:03
DeadCell
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#12
Ohh, the way you said "actualy," made me think you were correcting me on something.
  Posted on July 7, 2007 09:08
ChaosXX
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#13
sorry, i tried to interpret your post. lol, let's talk by pm. i'd like to know you're formulas for getting either one chakra or one genjutsu.

EDIT: OK, i just understood how you understood it.

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

nnn nng ngn gnn nnb nbn bnn ngg gng ggn bbn bnb nbb ngb nbg bng gnb ngb gnb

ggg ggb gbg bgg gbb bgb bbg

bbb

that's the list of all the possible chakra combinations (64 ways). The way you understood it is that you want to know the chances of getting at least one chakra, for example. then there are

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

ways in which you can receive chakra with one tai in them (37 ways). so that's 37/64 = 57% (decimals dropped).

That list consists of the chances of getting exactly one chakra (27 ways):

tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

exactly two chakra(9 ways):

ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

and exactly three chakra(1 chakra):

ttt

So The percentages add up to 57% (37/64)..

In this case, you get one tai or two tai or three tai but still get one tai. The total ways you receive at least one tai is:

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt tnn ntn nnt tgg gtg ggt bbt btb tbb tng tgn ntg gtn gnt ngt tnb tbn btn ntb nbt bnt tbg tgb gtb btg bgt gbt

Concerning getting at least two tai:

exactly two chakra(9 ways):

ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

and exactly three chakra(1 chakra):

ttt

So the percentages add up to 15% (10/64).. where you still get two tai. So the total ways would be

ttt ttn tnt ntt ttg tgt gtt ttb tbt btt

an finally, getting three tai. it's ttt, 1/64 = 1% (decimals dropped).
  Posted on July 7, 2007 15:45
leoemperor
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#14
wow i thought it would be a little more complex it pretty basic math.thanks for posting luapman!


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  Posted on July 7, 2007 21:38
Narutouzu
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#15
Since I always seem to get Bloodline,and Ninjutsu, Gaara and Zaku works great in a team I'm using,and I have no problem using Kurenai's stun more than once. xD
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